BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests somewhat and I like the new selection of competitions and prizes. The most important GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate for money games, and I was only going to decide on the main occasion stack for my money game play of this week. However, I can see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young makes a fantastic money game play. I don’t understand how large of a ceiling he’s since I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he has a top floor because this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter everywhere and that I see him winning this battle with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he has 100-point upside in a conclusion, and I also think he could finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my money game play of this week instead of my GPP playwith. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 things, but this is exactly why he’s my GPP play of the week and not my money game play of the week. In cash, I wish to lock in high flooring and that is not what we’ve got here. I like this for GPPs because when he loses at $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he has, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a gain if he dropped a decision at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just have to hit our other spots. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside because he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him becoming numerous takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I do not expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be more popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to stay position for as long as it lasts. Personally, I see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s the case, then I believe Gastelum gets the maximum floor of the underdogs since he will have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not put him on the $30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he will probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That’s why he’s my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on new with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have picked him as my fade each time he has fought so that I am going to roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is simply not valuable for DraftKings. The only way Alvey could score highly is by getting a knockout win. He does not strike a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and that he will not be going for any takedowns. Even if he receives a decision win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x out of a fighter once I roster them and with his $7.9k price tag, so I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 54-34 for +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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