UFC Rematch Betting Strategy & Statistics

Rematches are not uncommon in the realm of mixed martial arts. When a fighter sticks round the business for a significant length of time, then you can be assured they’ll be scheduled to battle an opponent they have already faced at one point or another. On top of that, dominant champions will always have a rematch or 2 solely because of running out of new opponents to face in their weight category.
Whenever these rematches take place, how should you wager them? In the event you bet on the fighter that won the battle? Is your underdog the perfect play? That’s a question I wished to reply so I brought up any info on the subject.
Since UFC 1, when fighters have confronted each other for a repeat bout, the winner of the preceding fight has gone 71-43-3 in the rematch. This usually means the winner is successful in 62??percent??of rematch??struggles.
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In order to use these amounts to our entire benefit as bettors, we need to dive into them a bit deeper. Our database for battle odds goes back to 2012, so we’ll use from then until present day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size to get favorites and underdogs.
Whoever who won the very first fight walked??into the rematch because of betting favorite??36??days out of a total of 60??rematches since 2012, winning 28??of those fights (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that’s an extremely high win rate, the profit from these fights isn’t quite as large as you might??imagine given the fact that a decent section of the fighters??would’ve been favorites with a substantial margin. $100 bettors would’ve walked away with a gain of $377.64??should they blindly bet about the fighter who won the previous bout when they had been listed as the favorite??in the next fight all 36??times this occurred.
The most significant (and rewarding ) statistic I discovered was that the fighter who won the first bout??won 14??out of 24??rematches when they were recorded as a underdog, giving $100 bettors a profit of $1,013.46.
In general, since 2012,??if you wager $100 on the fighter who won the very first fight when they competed in??a rematch, then you would’ve gained a gain of $1,391.10.
History will repeat itself, and UFC rematches aren’t any exception to that rule.
Bettors can look at UFC 210 as an prime illustration of this as Daniel Cormier went into his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog despite winning his first battle. He won in lopsided fashion through second-round entry. Rose Namajunas was likewise an underdog in EVEN money going into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and went on to triumph in a convincing unanimous choice.
While the figures show that gambling on the fighter who won the very first fight if they rematch a competition is rewarding, the complete opposite can clearly be said about betting on fighters at a rematch bout who dropped the first contest.
Favorites in rematches when they dropped the first fight are 10-14, losing $100 bettors that a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches when they lost the first battle are 8-28, dropping $100 bettors that a total of $979.
In other words gambling statistics into terms as simple as possible, you’ll feel safe gambling onto a fighter when they take on someone whom they’ve already beaten. Whether they are listed as favorites or maybe not, you will come to acquire a profit long term implementing this approach.
Not all rematches are created equal. There are a number of fights that never should be scrapped a second??time, or even a third??period in certain cases *ahem*BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar*ahem*.
To take these fights from this equation, for interest’s sake??I wanted to consider the numbers when shooting ONLY name conflicts under consideration. For the fight to fall under this category, the first battle and the rematch had??to have been for the belt.
The all-time listing for the last winner heading into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, previous winners in battles to the name are 17-3, netting $100 bettors that a profit of $725.20.
These numbers clearly do nothing but further the point that betting on the last winner heading into a rematch is a intelligent play, so don’t hesitate to implement this approach moving forward in the event that you want to win a little cash.

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