WTA Top 20 Analysis: Worrying decline for Kerber

With the Australian Open soon approaching, Dan Weston returns to analyse the top 20 players in the rankings and gives his ideas on who is over and under-rated…
Trying to use over/under-rated players to be found by metrics As has been the situation for the last few years, the WTA Tour has been exceptionally open and hard to forecast, with numerous players capable of beating each other on any given day.
Having said this, it does not mean that difficult to forecast equates to becoming impossible to forecast and that I thought I would examine some useful metrics with which to take a look at players, to attempt to identify those players at the WTA top 20 who are beneath and over-rated and whose outcomes have flattered them, or conversely, whose results are worse than their actual skill.
An example of how to apply the data An example program in the gambling market is as follows. Let’s say that we can determine a player that has won 70 percent of the matches within a short sample – say six months – but only deserved to win 50% of them according to information. Maybe they dramatically over-performed on key points and won more tiebreaks than expectation. In this scenario we might have the capacity for some continued opposition of the player in the comparative short-term, because my detailed previous investigation has proven it is extremely difficult to keep such a’clutch’ ability over a long period of time.
Using service/return points won to assess player abilities
To begin with, however, I want to look at participant ability levels. One way we could ascertain who’s performed the best, with as little prejudice as possible, is to assess service and return points won percentages. Adding them together gives us a concrete assessment of every player’s abilities, with These mounts adequate guidelines to a player general ability:-
110+: Elite level – illustrations are Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal on clay, Serena Williams at peak.
105-110: Strong top 10 level.
102-105: Not top degree, but strong top 20 player.
100-102: Should be rated in the 20-40 bracket.
Here 100: Unlikely to be ranked inside the top 40.
No current WTA player matches into the 110+ category, with Simona Halep (108.5percent ) having the highest 12-month all-surface figure. Serena Williams (109.2%) in the last six months, wasn’t far from this level, and if she can continue in this vein, perhaps her favourite status for the Australian Open is justified.

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